South Jordan, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

472
FXUS65 KSLC 232001
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
201 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES

- Daytime temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees above normal
  across the area through Friday. With this prolonged period of
  hot temperatures, the potential for heat related illness will
  increase across valley locations.

- High-based showers and thunderstorms will develop on Wednesday,
  first across southern Utah in the morning, becoming statewide by
  the afternoon. Gusty outflow winds are likely to accompany
  these showers, particularly in the morning across southern Utah
  and across northern Utah in the afternoon. Lightning associated
  with these storms may result in new fire starts.

- Strong, dry southwesterly flow near 40-50 mph ahead of a cold
  front will result in widespread and potentially significant
  critical fire weather conditions across the area Friday into
  Saturday.

- A strong cold front will cross the region later Saturday into
  Sunday bringing much cooler temperatures and the potential for
  patchy frost for the Cache Valley and Wasatch Back.

&&

.DISCUSSION...With a mid-level ridge centered over New Mexico,
Utah is currently under increasing southerly to southwesterly
flow, with overall hot and dry conditions. Temperatures will hover
near 5-10 degrees above normal through Thursday statewide, though
this will not last as a strong storm system arrives this weekend.
Today, breezy westerly winds within a very dry air mass has
resulted in critical fire weather conditions across southern Utah
(see Fire Weather section for more details).

Early Wednesday morning, moisture will surge in from the south,
with showers and thunderstorms crossing the UT-AZ border after 4AM
or so. These showers, limited to the southern third of the state
through the morning, will be high-based, at least at first, with
the main threat being dry lightning and gusty outflow winds up to
50 mph. As the boundary layer moistens, the threat will transition
to a mix of outflow winds and isolated flash flooding if a
stronger storm moves over a sensitive area...at least across
southern Utah.

By the afternoon, building instability across northern areas will
result in scattered thunderstorms after noon-1PM. Mid-level
moisture, steep lapse rates, and modest instability <500 J/kg
will promote a dry microburst threat (with near textbook
inverted-V soundings), with winds in excess of 60 mph possible
with collapsing showers. The HREF max wind gusts currently
highlight northern Utah and eastern Utah in particularly. There
is currently a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe
thunderstorms across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming on
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

On Thursday, drier air will attempt to push into the area as a
shortwave trough crosses N-NV and S-ID. There is still some
question with how quickly the moisture is eroded, which will
ultimately determine thunderstorm chances and associated outflow
winds and/or flash flooding. The highest precipitation chances
will be across eastern Utah, with the lowest chances across
southwestern Utah.

By Friday, as a potent longwave trough strengthens and pushes
into the PacNW, southwesterly flow will quickly increase across
our area. Coupled with an increasingly dry air mass, critical fire
weather conditions, potentially significant, will develop,
lasting until the main frontal passage late Saturday. Wind gusts
of 40-50 mph can be expected, with a reasonable worst case
scenario (90th percentile) of widespread gusts up to 55 mph. It`s
worth noting that a weaker, very shallow boundary will initially
push through northern Utah late Friday night, briefly pausing the
strong southwesterly winds. However, this front will dissipate
before reaching too far, allowing the southwest winds to pick back
up. A much stronger cold front will enter the northwest corner of
Utah early Saturday evening, quickly pushing across much of the
state during the overnight hours. With this frontal passage, some
moisture will also briefly move into northern Utah, producing some
showers overnight. There is still plenty of uncertainty with how
long winds hold on across southeastern Utah, with elevated winds
likely continuing into Sunday and potentially even Monday, too.

Aside from the winds, this seasonally-abnormal trough will feature
impressive temperatures, too, as high temperatures drop to 20
degrees below normal across northern areas and 10 degrees below
normal across southern Utah. Temperatures at 700-mb will likely
dip below the climatological 10th percentile at KSLC. Low
temperatures Monday morning may be quite chilly across higher
elevations, reaching the mid- to low-30s across the Wasatch Back
and southwest Wyoming, and upper-30s in the Cache Valley and
Sanpete Valley. Cooler and drier conditions will likely last for
at least a few days as a broad trough settles over the
Intermountain West.

&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...VFR conditions expected to prevail, though
elevated smoke will result in hazy skies. Southerly winds return by
around 03Z Wed, with potential for modest gusts noted after around
12Z. Winds then expected to shift more W to NW between ~18-20Z.
However, also anticipate development of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms capable of strong and gusty outflow winds which may
result in periods of variability.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...For Tuesday into Tuesday night,
winds will favor a diurnally normal pattern. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail, though area wildfires will result in areas of
smoke downwind, generally more elevated at areas further from the
fires. Westerly to southwesterly winds become increasingly favored
Wednesday. Additionally, moisture lifting into the area will result
in scattered afternoon convective development. With most of this
activity high-based in nature, expect the primary threat to be
lightning and strong gusty outflow winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire weather conditions will continue today
across southern Utah given wind and low humidity, with a hot and
dry air mass sitting over the state. Red Flag Warnings are in
effect for zones 492, 494, 496, and 498. Early Wednesday morning,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into far
southern Utah. While initially dry, storms will become more of a
mix of wet and dry, with the highest chances for wetting rains
across southwestern Utah. Gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph will be
possible. By the afternoon, thunderstorms will develop across
northern Utah, with a threat of strong outflow winds up to 65 mph.
Overnight RH recoveries will improve quite a bit Wednesday night.

Drier air will push into Utah on Thursday, however models have
trended towards a bit more lingering moisture, particularly across
eastern Utah where minimum RH will largely be in the 20-30%
range. Gusty outflow winds will once again be possible with
scattered thunderstorms that develop.

As a larger storm system strengthens across the western US,
strong southwesterly winds will develop on Friday and Saturday
statewide, with widespread gusts of 40-50 mph expected. A Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for nearly all of Utah on these days.
The air mass will become increasingly dry ahead of the cold
front, with critical minimum RH on Friday and Saturday. A weaker,
initial cold front will pass through northern Utah on Friday
night, bringing lighter winds and a wind shift, however
southwesterly winds will quickly redevelop on Saturday. A stronger
cold front will move through Saturday night, bringing
northwesterly winds and much cooler temperatures. There is some
uncertainty with how long the gusty southwesterly winds last into
Sunday across southern Utah.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for UTZ478-482-484-488-489-492>498.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ493-494-496-
     498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cunningham
AVIATION...Warthen
FIRE WEATHER...Cunningham

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity